When the Philadelphia Eagles take the field in Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season, they’re not just playing for a win—they’re fighting to stay ahead in a playoff race that’s tighter than a fourth-quarter snap. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Eagles hold a 68.3% chance to beat the Chicago Bears, by an average of 7.2 points. It’s not just numbers on a screen. It’s Jalen Hurts under center, reading defenses like a chess master, while the Bears’ offensive line—already battered—faces its toughest test yet. This isn’t just about points. It’s about momentum.
Why the FPI Matters More Than Ever
The Football Power Index (FPI) isn’t your grandfather’s power ranking. Developed by ESPN Research analysts Pamela Maldonado, Moody, and Walder, it uses over 40 variables—team efficiency, schedule strength, injury impact, even weather-adjusted play tendencies—to forecast outcomes. And right now, it’s calling the shots better than any pundit on TV.
Take the Los Angeles Rams versus Carolina Panthers matchup: 71.4% win probability for the Rams, with an 8.6-point average margin. Analyst Walder predicted “Rams 27, Panthers 13”—a blowout that feels almost inevitable. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are flying under the radar with a 66.9% chance against the Tennessee Titans, despite being slight road underdogs. Three analysts offered wildly different scores—Maldonado: “Jaguars 28, Titans 27”; Moody: “Jaguars 25, Titans 13”; Walder: “Jaguars 24, Titans 14.” That split? It’s not confusion. It’s uncertainty. And that’s what makes this game fascinating.
The Playoff Picture Is Shifting Fast
As of Week 13, the New England Patriots sit atop the league at 10-2. The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams trail at 9-2. But here’s the twist: the Rams are ranked No. 1 in CBS Sports’ Power Rankings, while the Patriots lead in wins. One’s about consistency. The other, about ceiling. And that’s exactly why FPI leans toward the Rams as the top seed.
“The projected top seeds are the Los Angeles Rams—the No. 1 team in my Power Rankings—and the New England Patriots,” said a CBS Sports analyst in their Week 13 breakdown. That’s not just opinion. It’s data whispering through the noise. The Patriots have depth. The Rams have explosiveness. The Jaguars? They’ve covered three straight games. That’s betting market code for “they’re better than their record suggests.”
Injuries, Moves, and Quiet Transformations
Behind every projection, there’s a story. The Washington Commanders are holding their breath on defensive back Daniels, who’s practicing but “a long shot to play” against the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos made a quiet move—signing kicker Lutz to a three-year extension. That’s not flashy. But in a league where field goals win games, it’s critical.
The Carolina Panthers are reeling after Moehrig was suspended one game for a low blow. That’s not just a disciplinary issue—it’s a culture problem. And the New York Giants are betting big on new defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen, with offensive coordinator Kafka admitting he’s “putting a lot of faith” in him. That’s desperation dressed as strategy.
And then there’s Hodge, the Atlanta Falcons wideout, wearing cleats that spotlight HBCUs. It’s not just a statement. It’s a movement. And it’s changing how fans see the game.
What’s Next? The Road to January
The New England Patriots face the New York Giants in a game that could define their season. The Atlanta Falcons are asking: Are we resetting at QB again? The Chicago Bears are clinging to playoff hopes, but their offensive line is a sieve. The Tennessee Titans have been covering the spread—but can they cover the talent gap?
And let’s not forget the Sagarin NFL Ratings, the old-school system that still holds weight. The Green Bay Packers sit at 24.35, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 20.54. Sagarin adds two points for home-field advantage. Simple. But it’s telling: the Packers are still a threat, even if they’re not in the headlines.
The FPI doesn’t care about narratives. It cares about efficiency. It doesn’t care who’s popular. It cares about who moves the chains, who converts third downs, who holds up under pressure. And right now, the Eagles, Rams, and Jaguars are the three teams doing it best.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the FPI differ from traditional power rankings?
Unlike traditional rankings based on wins, losses, or subjective opinions, the Football Power Index (FPI) uses statistical modeling that factors in team efficiency, strength of schedule, injuries, and even situational performance like red zone success. It’s designed to predict future outcomes, not just rank past results. For example, a team with a 7-5 record but elite offensive efficiency might have a higher FPI than a 9-3 team with a weak schedule.
Why are the Jaguars favored over the Titans despite having a worse record?
The Jaguars have outperformed expectations this season, with one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses and a defense that’s improved dramatically since Week 6. They’ve covered the spread in three straight games, suggesting oddsmakers and data models see them as stronger than their 6-6 record implies. The Titans, meanwhile, have struggled with injuries at linebacker and inconsistent quarterback play, dragging down their FPI score despite a similar win total.
What impact do injuries have on FPI projections?
Injuries are baked into FPI through real-time player performance models. For example, if a starting quarterback like Jalen Hurts is listed as questionable, the FPI adjusts his projected snaps and efficiency downward. If a key defensive back like Daniels of the Commanders is out, the model increases the opponent’s expected yards per play by 1.8 on average—enough to flip a 52% win probability to 44%.
Can the Patriots still win the AFC if they lose to the Giants?
Yes—but it gets harder. At 10-2, the Patriots still hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos and Rams due to better divisional record. But a loss would drop them to 10-3, putting them in a three-way tiebreaker scenario. With the Rams’ stronger strength of schedule and higher FPI, they’d likely leapfrog New England in playoff seeding if both finish 11-5. The Patriots can’t afford slip-ups against teams ranked below them.
Why is the Rams’ FPI so high despite playing in a tough division?
The Rams have faced the toughest schedule in the NFC, yet still rank top-five in offensive efficiency and top-10 in defensive pressure rate. Their win against the 49ers in Week 9 was a signature performance that boosted their FPI by 4.2 points. The model rewards teams that dominate against strong opponents, and the Rams have done that consistently—even with injuries at tight end and cornerback.
How reliable is FPI for betting purposes?
FPI has correctly predicted the winner in 72% of NFL games this season, outperforming most sportsbooks’ initial lines by 3-5%. However, it doesn’t account for betting market movement or public sentiment—so while it’s excellent for identifying value (like the Jaguars as underdogs), it shouldn’t be used alone. Combine it with injury reports and coaching trends for the best edge.