Oct, 1 2025
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When Aroldis Chapman, the 37‑year‑old closer for the Boston Red Sox, became available on the 2025 MLB Trade DeadlineChicago, Illinois, the Chicago Cubs felt a familiar itch. President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer knows the clock is ticking, especially with All‑Star outfielder Kyle Tucker flirting with free agency and rival Philadelphia Phillies scouting the same bullpen upgrade.
Chicago’s relief corps has been solid enough to keep them in the hunt, but it’s missing a true left‑handed anchor. Caleb Thielbar has shouldered most match‑ups against south‑paws, posting a respectable 3.65 ERA over 30 appearances. He’s serviceable, but not the kind of shutdown option that can silence a late‑inning rally. Then there’s 24‑year‑old Daniel Palencia, who inherited the closer role after the trade‑deadline acquisition of Drew Pomeranz. Palencia has flashed electric velocity, yet he’s never pitched in the postseason. In a sport where a single mis‑step can end a championship run, owners and fans alike prefer a veteran who’s already walked the walk.
Boston’s season has been a roller‑coaster, sitting at 32‑35 as of July 20, but Chapman has been a bright spot. He logged a 2.84 ERA across 28 games, struck out 46 batters in just 30 1/3 innings, and maintained a 1.05 WHIP. His fastball still tops out at 100 mph, and his splitter remains a nightmare for hitters. Those numbers suggest he’s still capable of delivering the kind of high‑leverage outs the Cubs crave. And because his contract expires after the season, the Red Sox would likely be willing to part with him for a modest package.
The Red Sox, staring at a sub‑.500 record, are already field‑testing the market. A common rumor is that they would accept a mix of prospects and a draft pick. In 2023, Boston turned a comparable reliever for a player to be named later and a 2025 fourth‑rounder. This time, a plausible return could be Tom Cosgrove (right‑handed depth), a catching prospect from Chicago’s farm system, plus a competitive 2026 International bonus slot. The exact pieces remain speculative, but the structure is familiar: a veteran for future flexibility.
The Phillies, holding a 37‑28 record and perched in the NL wild‑card, have a bullpen ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.87 ERA. Their woes intensified after right‑hander Jose Alvarado received an 80‑game suspension for a testosterone violation. With Ryan Pressley shouldering the bulk of the load, Philadelphia’s front office has been quietly contacting Boston’s trade representatives. Other clubs, like the New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays, are also rumored to be watching, but the Cubs have the added narrative hook of a former champion returning home.
Analytics suggest that adding a left‑handed pitcher with Chapman’s pedigree would shave roughly 0.15 runs per game from the Cubs’ ERA. Over a 162‑game season, that translates to about 24 additional wins—a margin that could lift Chicago from a wild‑card fight to a division‑winning position. More importantly, it gives manager David Ross a proven late‑inning option, letting him set up the rotation for the high‑leverage spots in September and October. In the postseason, experience matters; Chapman’s 2016 World Series ring and 2023 title with the Texas Rangers give him a confidence that younger arms simply lack.
Jed Hoyer’s own contract expires after the 2025 season, and his bonus structure is tied to the Cubs making the playoffs. That creates a double‑edged incentive: push hard now or watch his tenure end without a postseason appearance. If Boston does indeed become a seller, Chicago will have to decide whether to part with a top prospect—perhaps an outfielder slated for the majors in 2026—or to over‑pay in cash. Either way, the transaction will be a litmus test for Hoyer’s willingness to gamble on short‑term rent versus long‑term depth.
Chapman would become the go‑to left‑handed late‑inning specialist, pushing Caleb Thielbar into mid‑relief roles and allowing Daniel Palencia to stay in a set‑up position. The added experience would also free up the manager to use the right‑handed bullpen more flexibly.
Analysts peg a likely package at a mid‑level right‑handed reliever like Tom Cosgrove, a catching prospect from the Cubs’ system, and a 2026 International bonus slot. Cash considerations could also be on the table to balance salaries.
Philadelphia sits with the worst bullpen ERA in the National League and just lost Jose Alvarado to a suspension. Adding a veteran left‑handed closer would instantly improve their late‑inning stability and give them a shot at a deeper playoff run.
Securing Chapman would send a signal that Chicago is willing to spend on proven talent, bolstering their case with Tucker’s camp. It could tip the scales in negotiations and increase the likelihood of the outfielder re‑signing.
The official deadline is July 31, 2025, but front offices typically start finalizing deals a few days earlier to allow time for physicals and paperwork. Expect intense activity between July 27 and July 30.
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